Has Modi-Trump bonhomie taken a big hit?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has often talked of having a great camaraderie with US President Donald Trump and the former even tried to mobilise support for him among Indian diaspora in the run-up to the 2020 US polls with ‘Ab ki baar, Trump sarkar’ slogan.

However, things are not the same during Trump’s second stint as the US president. A lot of water has flown under the bridge over the last few months that suggests that the equation that the two leaders shared once may be a thing of the past, whether it be the issue of tariffs or truce between India and Pakistan after Operation Sindoor.

Deteriorating ties in Trump 2.0

The turning point in the ties between the two leaders came when PM Modi visited America in September last year ahead of the US elections, but didn’t meet Trump, though there were intense speculations that they will meet.

Also read: Trump offers to mediate on Kashmir, says will ramp up trade with India, Pak

This was in stark contrast to Trump’s first term in the office. PM Modi had invited Trump, then the US President, to the “Howdy Modi” rally in Houston in 2019, where a crowd of 50,000 had left Trump impressed. It was followed by Trump's 2020 visit to India, where he was welcomed with the “Namaste Trump” rally, organised by PM Modi in Ahmedabad, with 1 lakh people packed into the newly-constructed stadium named after Modi.

In 2019 Houston event, PM Modi had appeared to openly endorse Trump’s re-election bid by echoing the slogan “Ab ki baar, Trump sarkar”, though it had led to some criticism.

Given that this phrase was coined by Trump's Indian-American supporters, who often see similarities between the two leaders as strong and assertive figures, some American commentators also suggested that PM Modi was backing Trump for a second term in 2020.

However, after Trump lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden, New Delhi had to reportedly recalibrate its approach to the new Democratic administration in Washington.

Reciprocal tariffs & trade war

Later, in February 2025, PM Modi had a successful US visit during which he and Trump focused on trade, tariffs, and defence ties. While Trump had previously threatened to impose tariffs, the two leaders signalled a willingness to negotiate, raising hopes of possible concessions from both sides.

However, on April 5, President Trump unveiled a sweeping 10 per cent blanket tariff on imports from all countries, describing it as a measure to address America’s widening trade deficit and to “punish unfair competitors.” Within days, this evolved into a more aggressive “reciprocal tariff” regime targeting about 90 countries, including India. The result: Indian goods were subjected to a staggering 26 per cent tariff in the US, a significant hike from earlier trade terms under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP), which had already been revoked in 2019.

The US President highlighted the high tariffs charged by India on American products as he announced reciprocal tariffs on countries worldwide, declaring a 26 per cent “discounted reciprocal tariff” on India. However, Trump later announced a pause of 90 days on reciprocal tariffs.

The US is India’s largest trading partner, with total goods trade between the two countries estimated at $129.2 billion in 2024. The US imported goods worth $87.4 billion in 2024 from India, up 4.5 per cent ($3.7 billion) from 2023.

If, after the 90-day pause, Trump were to restore the 26 per cent tariff, Indian imported goods will become more expensive in the US, potentially leading to customers looking elsewhere. That could significantly harm Indian businesses and jobs.

Hyphenating India with Pakistan

As they say a week is a long time in politics, Trump’s statements over the last one week have particularly left the saffron ecosystem in India bewildered, be it regarding India-Pakistan truce, Kashmir issue or bilateral trade. In his bid to play a peacemaker, Trump has ended up hyphenating India with Pakistan.

It all started on at 5.35 pm on May 10 when Trump’s announcement about a ceasefire between Indian and Pakistan on Truth Social took one and all by surprise. He posted: “After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE.”

Minutes later, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio followed up with a detailed statement, claiming credit for a flurry of calls with the top leadership, the DGMOs, and the NSAs of both the countries.

Also read: Trump says he convinced India, Pak to ‘let’s have peace, go make trade deals’

India responded about half an hour later with its version. In a stiff televised statement, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri insisted that the ceasefire came from a direct hotline chat between the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs), initiated by Pakistan’s side. He said the ceasefire was a “bilateral decision” made through military hotlines. He didn’t mention Trump or Rubio. “It was agreed between them that both sides would stop all firing and military action on land,” Misri said, emphasising India’s position of having no third-party intervention in dealing with Pakistan.

India also rejected Rubio’s claim that the two countries had agreed to meet for talks at a neutral venue. However, it didn’t deter Trump from moving a step further the next day as he posted on Truth Social that he wanted to work with Indian and Pakistan “to see if after a ‘thousand years’ a solution can be arrived at concerning Kashmir”.

This was no less than a setback for PM Modi and Indian diplomacy as it is contrary to India’s long-standing position that clearly rules out any third-party intervention in the Kashmir issue.

Trade incentive bait to de-escalate?

A couple of days later, just minutes before PM Modi was scheduled to deliver his address to the nation at 8 pm on May 12, Trump claimed that he had offered trade incentives to both New Delhi and Islamabad to de-escalate tensions.

“Come on, we're going to do a lot of trade with you guys,” Trump had said. “Let's stop it. Let's stop it. If you stop it, we're doing trade. If you don't stop it, we're not going to do any trade. We're going to do a lot of trade with Pakistan. We're going to do a lot of trade with India. We're negotiating with India right now, we're going to be soon, negotiating with Pakistan.”

A day later he reiterated the US’ role in brokering peace between India and Pakistan, saying he told the two sides to “not trade nuclear missiles (and) trade the things that you make so beautifully”.

Claims trade deal with ‘no tariffs’

As if it wasn’t enough, Trump on Thursday made yet another startling claim, saying that India has offered a trade deal with “no tariffs”.

Speaking about tariffs and trade in Doha, President Trump said, “It is very hard to sell in India, and they are offering us a deal where basically they are willing to literally charge us no tariffs.” He also expressed his dissatisfaction with Apple's plans to invest and manufacture in India.

His statement came at a time when New Delhi is seeking to clinch a trade deal with the US within the 90-day pause announced by Trump on April 9 on tariff hikes for major trading partners.

Trump also said that he had confronted Apple’s CEO Tim Cook about shifting production to India, as the American company moves to make most of its iPhones sold in the United States at factories in India by the end of 2026, and is speeding up those plans to navigate potentially higher tariffs in China.

Also read: Don't want you building in India, Trump tells Apple CEO

“Tim, we treated you very good, we put up with all the plants you built in China for years ... we are not interested in you building in India, India can take care of themselves, they are doing very well, we want you to build here,” Trump recalled himself telling Cook.

How’s India responding to Trump?

On the other hand, India ruled out mediation saying the only outstanding matter between the two countries is the vacation of illegally occupied territory by Pakistan.

A MEA spokesperson said trade never came up for discussions with the US and gave a chronological account of conversations to reinforce the point that it was Pakistan which reached out towards pausing military action after an extremely effective attack by Indian forces on key Pakistani Air Force bases.

On the issue of trade, India, without directly naming the US or President Trump, called his “zero tariff” remarks “premature”.

“Any trade deal has to be mutually beneficial. It has to work for both countries. That would be our expectation from any trade deal. Until that is done, any judgement will be premature,” said Minister for External Affairs Dr S Jaishankar. The minister said that such negotiations are “complicated”, and take time. “Nothing is decided till everything is,” he added.