US strike on Iran: What it means for the world

As the Iran-Israel war escalates dramatically, the United States has entered the conflict by launching strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. This development has sparked global alarm and threatens to trigger a wider regional and possibly global conflagration.

To unpack the implications, The Federal spoke with our Consulting Editor K S Dakshina Murthy, who shared his insights on the strategic missteps, Trump’s unilateralism, and what it could mean for India and the world.

The United States has now entered the Iran-Israel conflict by striking Iranian nuclear facilities. What are your initial thoughts?

I wouldn't call it inevitable. Using that word implies helplessness, which isn't true in this case. It was a considered, open decision by the United States—but a massive strategic and tactical error. This should never have happened. Iran has not threatened the US directly, and even Israel wasn't facing an existential threat from Iran.

Also read: Trump’s attack on Iran, a ‘spectacular’ failure of US foreign policy

This entire conflict began with Israel bombing Iran. Ideally, it should have remained between those two. But Donald Trump, in his unpredictable fashion, has jumped into the conflict. This has grave consequences, not just for the region but for the world at large. There was no justification for the US to enter the war, especially considering that five rounds of discussions had already taken place with Iran.

Historically, Iran has always shown openness to negotiations. It was Trump who unilaterally walked out of the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018. And now, by bombing Iran, he’s essentially adding salt to that wound. I don’t think he will find much support for this decision, apart from Israel.

With Iran vowing retaliation and the US warning against it, how do you see this escalating?

Yes, Iran is weaker militarily compared to the combined strength of the US and Israel. But that doesn't mean Iran will remain passive. It has already launched 20–30 missiles into Israel. It has made it clear it is ready to engage.

The question is, how far will Iran go? Iran has consistently warned that if the US enters the conflict, it would target American military bases in the Middle East. The nearest of these is in Qatar, and there are many others.

If Iran strikes US bases, this will not only escalate the situation militarily but also politically complicate things for countries that host these bases. Their sovereignty will be challenged. And this could provoke Trump even more. There are already suggestions that the US might send ground troops into Iran.

Also read: The multiple casualties of US attack on Iran

We're on a knife's edge. Iran faces a tough dilemma—if it doesn't retaliate, it risks losing face and legitimacy internally. But retaliating could trigger devastating consequences. It's a multi-layered, precarious situation.

Why has the US targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities in particular? Is this about preventing Iran from getting the bomb?

I’d argue this isn’t even a US action in the traditional sense—it’s Donald Trump’s personal decision. Since taking office on January 20, he’s taken decisions that have shocked not just the world but also many within the US. This is one of them.

It’s entirely Trump and his inner circle driving this move. There’s no larger institutional backing. Congress hasn’t cleared it. There’s visible opposition from within the US to this escalation. So this doesn’t reflect the broader US stance, but rather Trump’s unilateralism.

And the consequences? They’re entirely unpredictable. With someone like Trump, who thrives on unpredictability, it’s very hard to forecast what comes next. Unfortunately, he happens to lead the most powerful country in the world.

Given Trump’s unpredictability, are we likely to see further escalation?

Absolutely. Trump is someone with an enormous ego. If Iran retaliates or even shows resistance, he could escalate further just to prove a point. If Iran targets even one US base in the Middle East, Trump could launch an even more aggressive campaign.

Even during the George W. Bush years, when the US invaded Iraq, they backed off from attacking Iran because they were aware of the consequences. But Trump doesn’t seem to operate with that level of caution. He doesn’t appear to consider the long-term fallout. That’s what makes this so dangerous.

From India’s perspective, how does this new three-way conflict—Israel, Iran, and now the US—affect us?

India will be badly hit, just like the rest of the world. The Middle East is a critical region for India—not just strategically but economically. Most of our oil comes from there. It's also our gateway to the West.

Also read: PM Modi dials Iran President Pezeshkian, calls for de-escalation of conflict with Israel

Any conflict in the region jeopardizes energy supplies and trade routes. If the situation worsens, there will be immediate economic fallout—rising oil prices, disruptions in global supply chains, and broader geopolitical instability. This is not something India can ignore. It will be a difficult time for all of us with what Trump has done today.

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